April 28, 2005
False generalization
My colleague Tim Bray posted a revealing little rant today about the first flight of the Airbus A380: "On this page there is a frightful lie, namely that the plane will seat 555 passengers with lots of room for lounges and shopping and so on. This claim is oblivious to the facts that most airlines are losing money and most travelers are highly price-sensitive; ergo, this turkey will carry 800-plus suffering souls packed in like sardines"
Now I always thought that Tim, as a Canadian, would be less prone to the typically American habit of assuming that "US = world". If you check the current orders for the plane, you'll see that the vast majority of the customers are non-American companies* that are not losing money. Furthermore it's clear that many of the first A380s will be deployed on the routes between Europe and south-east Asia, which are much less price-sensitive than, say, BOS-SFO. Airlines like Singapore and Emirates aren't going to emulate Ryanair any time soon; they're going to compete on service and amenities. Just because the U.S. domestic airline industry is a shambles....
The bottom line: I expect that there will be plenty of 555 seater A380s with bars, shops, and casinos. Just not here, unfortunately.
* In fact the only U.S. customers for the A380 are FedEx and UPS; presumably their packages don't mind being "packed in like sardines"....
Posted by geoff2 at April 28, 2005 09:24 AM
Airline profits are soaring elsewhere in the world (Air-India just ordered 50 new aircraft), and I too predict the A380 to be at least moderately successful.
To date, of the 160 or so orders for A380s, none belong to any US airline with the exception of freighter versions for FedEx and UPS. I don't foresee this changing.
Operators like Emirates, Singapore, and Virgin Atlantic will outfit their ships for about 550 passengers, with an emphasis on premium cabin amenities. First and business class passengers are big profit-makers on these airlines' long-haul services.
Posted by: Localizer at April 29, 2005 11:51 AM"ladies and gentlemen, this is your chief pursar speaking. i have of couple of safety announcements.first, will all economy passengers make sure their tables are folded up, seatbelts fastened and chairs in the upright position.second, will all first class passengers obsevre there is no running in the pool area."
Posted by: peter lees at April 29, 2005 02:07 PM