I've been watching the current debate on EU admission for Turkey with a fair amount of confusion. Understandably, much of the discussion has revolved around such issues as European "identity", religion, the effect on the labour market, human rights, Cyprus, Armenia, the military in politics, and so on. The question of precedent is also critical: if Turkey, why not Russia? Etcetera. Things have also been complicated by the insensitive meddling of the US administration.
Setting aside such issues, I am surprised that there hasn't been much said about the sheer volatility of the Turkish economy. Even the Economist profile doesn't discuss this as one might expect. The latest EU report makes sobering reading. Recent inflation rates between 28% and 101%; public sector deficits between 10% and 28%; exchange rates oscillating wildly, dropping 50% and then gaining 12%. In part this seems a consequence of the fact around 50% of all business falls into the "underground economy" category. It is hard to imagine how to integrate such an economy into a supra-national body that has been defined since day one by economic convergence.
Posted by geoff2 at December 19, 2004 07:52 AM
I visit Turkey almost every 3 - 4 years and know enough Azeri so that after a couple of weeks can start speaking enough Istanbuli Turkish to be able to communicate with folks. The EU issues are nothing new. They have been discussed almost ever since EU was put together, and Turkey has been on the "verge" of joining forever, it seems. To many Turks, the issue has become a complete joke. No matter what Turkey does, there's something else that they need to do. There are many government officials, parlamentarians and other powers-that-be in Europe that simply don't want Turkey as part of Europe. Common Turks have grown accustomed to making fun of their leaders for still wanting to do it, for still wanting to be part of a block that doesn't seem to want them. It's great material for cartoons, comedies and books.